Meltzer Article: LHW Division

[LWPD]

The quality of MMA journalism is only slightly above that of pro wres (which is abysmal). Dave Meltzer is the best in both realms. Another solid article and intelligent food for thought. While the Welterweight division brings the most competitive substance and the Lightweights turn in the most technical fights in the eyes of the hardcores...it's always the bigger guys who capture the imagination of the larger audience. Yet what do you do when 'drawing cards' fall victim to endless random upset patterns? A worthwhile read.

Courtesy of Fox Sports.com

UFC's Light Heavyweights Carry The Sport

By Dave Meltzer

For almost the entire past decade, the Ultimate Fighting Championship's marquee weight class has been the current light heavyweight division.

The division, at the time called middleweight with a 200-pound weight limit, was created in 1997, with the idea of building around 1992 Olympic freestyle wrestling gold medalist Kevin Jackson. Of course, like most plans in MMA, things didn't exactly turn out as expected.

Jackson, who had become a star with UFC's lead rival group at the time, the Extreme Fighting Championship, was to face the winner of a Frank Shamrock vs. Enson Inoue match in Japan. Inoue, the Shooto heavyweight champion, was a slight favorite over Shamrock, a former champion in the Pancrase organization. But Shamrock beat Inoue, then beat Jackson with an armbar in 14 seconds, and followed by beating EFC champion Igor Zinoviev in 21 seconds. For the next two years, in the dark ages of the sport, with very little pay-per-view clearance and years before anyone in television would touch something deemed so controversial, Shamrock was UFC's biggest star.

He quit UFC after beating Tito Ortiz on Sept. 24, 1999, in something of a legendary match. It was Shamrock's cardio, not his strength, stand-up or even groundwork, that saw him take the measure of a much bigger and stronger opponent.

Ortiz beat Wanderlei Silva on April 14, 2000, in a dull five-round decision in Japan, and was immediately anointed the company's top star. Shortly thereafter, the weight class became 205 pounds and was renamed light heavyweight in the UFC. But it was still called middleweight in Japan, where Silva became an incredible star with a series of matches against Kazushi Sakuraba, a pro wrestler who became a genuine national hero for wins against the Gracie family.

When the original UFC owners, the Semaphore Entertainment Group, sold complete interest in what appeared to be a dying product in North America to Zuffa in early 2001, Ortiz was the face of the company, and they got behind him with a huge promotional push. Ortiz's title run lasted four years, before he became the victim of one of many Randy Couture upsets on Sept. 26, 2003. Today, the idea of the older Couture outwrestling Ortiz for five straight rounds and winning a lopsided decision wouldn't surprise anyone. Four years ago Couture was 40 and thought to be clearly too old to take on the top younger talent.

The modern era of MMA, traced to the beginning of The Ultimate Fighter television show in the spring of 2005, saw Couture as champion and Chuck Liddell as challenger in the first major match of the new era on April 16, 2005. Built up as opposing coaches on the reality show, their match did upwards of 300,000 buys on pay-per-view, the biggest the sport had ever done. Liddell scored a knockout and with television causing growth at such an amazing rate, Liddell's quiet demeanor, Mohawk haircut and one-punch knockout style became its symbol for most of the past two years.

That ended with one punch delivered by Quinton Jackson on May 26 in Las Vegas.

After beating Dan Henderson in a tough five-round decision on Sept. 8 in London in the UFC vs. Pride title unification match, Jackson appeared to be primed for two huge matches early next year. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, who handed Jackson the most one-sided loss of his career in 2005, was generally viewed as No. 1 in the world. But it would take time for the U.S. audiences to learn about a guy who made his reputation in Japan. The winner of Liddell vs. Silva was expected to be even bigger. Liddell was the star in the U.S., while Silva had a six-year-run as champion with Pride in Japan before losing to Henderson. Plus, Silva knocked out Jackson twice in Japan.

Today, not only does that remain the same, but with all the depth the division has become both confusing and chaotic, with the big questions in UFC being where to go from here. Who should face who? Who should get the next title shot? What matches should take place to sort out this mess? And just as important in a marquee division, what matches do the fans want to see and hence will draw the most interest and money?

Before figuring out where to go, we first have to look at the names in the running:

Houston Alexander (8-1): The name with the real question marks. Alexander was a no-name fighter, 35 years old and brought in to the UFC to face Jardine on May 26. The Nevada State Athletic Commission considered not even allowing the fight, feeling it was a mismatch. Jardine buckled Alexander's knees in seconds with a punch. And then, something happened. Alexander became a human sledge hammer, knocking Jardine silly in 48 seconds of one of the most exciting one-minute fights in UFC history. He followed with a win over Alessio Sakara in 1:01, but a lot of people have beaten Sakara. What we know about Alexander is that he hits hard, and when he has a guy in trouble, he is like a shark smelling blood — a great finisher. We don't know about him is what would happen against top talent if the match gets out of the first round. But there is always marquee value in a guy who can score consistent fast knockouts, and most of his prior-to-UFC wins were also quick. He may have superstar potential, but with a guy with only one major name on his resume, you worry that once people train for him and defend early, we may find he's got serious holes in his game.

Rashad Evans (15-0-1): A former college wrestler at Michigan State, Evans won the second season of The Ultimate Fighter as a heavyweight. He dropped down a weight class after the show. Now 28, he moved to Albuquerque, N.M., to train at Greg Jackson's camp, and is best friends and training partners with fellow contender Jardine. He was unbeaten until his draw with Tito Ortiz on July 7. While not yet signed, the UFC's plan is to match Evans vs. Ortiz on Nov. 17 in Newark, N.J. The loser finds himself out of contention. Depending on how the match goes, the winner could take a major step forward.

[LWPD]

Continued and Concluded

Forrest Griffin (15-4): Two weeks ago it would have been considered a joke to put him in this mix of talent, let alone suggest him for a championship shot in a division with this much talent. His best previous win was his first fight against Stephan Bonnar, a decision that could have gone either way but made him a superstar because it was such an entertaining fight. Griffin decisively beat Bonnar in a rematch that people hardly remember. Griffin has improved his boxing immensely, is a big guy in the weight division at 6-foot-3, and he goes 240 in the off-season. His ground skills are underrated and if he hadn't been knocked out by Keith Jardine, he would be on quite the run. At 28, he's in his prime. But what he has going for him from a business standpoint is that people love him. The Bonnar fight put him on the map, and he's got great self-deprecating humor. Plus, he's got a unique connection because most of his fan base followed The Ultimate Fighter and have followed his career ever since, watching him catapult to superstar status though hard work. Even more so than Ortiz, he's got the most marketable traits to the U.S. audience on this list, and his reception when fighting in Ireland shows his charisma plays worldwide.

Dan Henderson (22-6): Henderson, who is probably better suited for middleweight (he's still the Pride champion in its 183-pound weight class), combines Olympic-level wrestling (he competed for the U.S. in Greco-Roman in 1992 and 1996) and knockout power in both hands. He fought Jackson down to the wire, losing a close decision. His weaknesses, besides giving up size to most in the division, is that he just lost in his shot. He was not a big name in the U.S. going in, but more people saw his fight with Jackson than all but one fight (Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz in 2006) in North American MMA history. Now 37, he should be in the mix, largely dependent upon how he does in his next fight or two.

Keith Jardine (13-3-1): A longtime journeyman-type fighter all of the sudden finds himself a star with wins over Griffin and Liddell. If it wasn't for his first-round knockout loss to Alexander, there would be no debate over the No. 1 contender. Jardine is a tough guy, well-rounded, from a strong camp and was given the game plan to beat Liddell and executed. But he's quiet, and in a business where the ability to sell tickets is important for a main-eventer, he's not quite there yet even with his two big wins.

Chuck Liddell (20-5): He and Randy Couture are still the biggest names in the sport. But at the age of 37, coming off straight losses after being such a dominant champion, he's facing questions: Has he become too predictable in style? Has age caught up with him? Has he lost his edge due to success? If he got two major wins, he could erase the questions, but to do so means he would likely have to change his style. He's a Division I level wrestler, so he should at least threaten to use it to keep his opponents honest from not defending the takedown. He has knockout power with his kicks, but he got content to sit back and go for the knockout, trusting his sturdy chin to take the counters and that, given enough time, he'd connect and it would be over. The strategy hasn't worked. Liddell doesn't have a gift of gab, nor traits one would normally think of for a box-office superstar. But he was in the right place at the right time. He became the top star when the current group of fans started watching, and they saw him score knockout after knockout. Even though he has lost, he is the closest thing to their Ali, without the rhymes and Howard Cosell.

Lyoto Machida (11-0): The only unbeaten and untied fighter on the contenders list. Machida has a unique story, but it plays better for Japan. He was a karate fighter discovered by Antonio Inoki, a pro wrestling legend that the Japanese public believes is a legendary fighter based on how pro wrestling was promoted in the '70s. Like Inoki, Machida was of Japanese descent but grew up in Brazil. Inoki brought him in to be his personal protege. He has some interesting names on his victims list, including Stephan Bonnar, Rich Franklin and B.J. Penn (who he had 40 pounds on in a Japanese freak show-style match in a lackluster decision). But he's heavily criticized for playing it safe. Nobody has figured out a way to beat his combination of good balance standing and point karate-style movement, but he's got no marquee value at all and in a main event, you are risking a boring match more than any other fighter. He's 29, and the natural thing is to match him with a top guy and see where he truly stands.

Tito Ortiz (15-5-1): Ortiz has been traditionally a wrestler who takes people down to ground-and-pound them. When he can't do that, he usually doesn't win. Now 32, he's been battling nagging back injuries for years and his striking is suspect against the top-level guys. It's also no secret Ortiz has gone from the company golden boy a few years ago to someone they grudgingly put up with. His real biggest strength is he's still a huge-name fighter who understands how to promote a match, something missing in so many of the contenders. He also has a track record as a draw, being on top in the two biggest PPV events in company history (vs. Ken Shamrock and Liddell) and was in the most watched television match in history, and that was only one year ago. He also coached the highest-rated season of The Ultimate Fighter. More than any fighter, regardless of talent, Tito is proven money. But he's battling the perception his best days are behind him and needs two big wins before anyone who consider him anything but a last-ditch candidate for a title shot.

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (16-3): Rua's loss last week to Forrest Griffin was a wake-up call for everyone in Pride who believed they were in the superior league and were constantly facing inferior competition. Rua has blamed the loss on a bad knee and was scheduled for surgery over the weekend. He won't be available until the early part of next year. At 25, he's the youngest of all the upper-echelon guys in the weight class.

Wanderlei Silva (31-7-1): Silva in his prime was one of the world's most exciting fighters, with an all-out style of punches, kicks and knees that overwhelmed many of his opponents in short order. But for the past two years, he's looked far more human and is coming off two straight knockout losses. He's only 31, but in fighting years he's an old 31 because of his style and the number of matches he's had. Plus, the all-out fighting practice sessions he was famous for in Brazil probably hindered his career longevity. The fighters he'll be facing are mostly bigger, more well-rounded and more disciplined than the people he made his reputation on in Japan. And there has been a big question of the difference between fighting in a country with government-imposed drug testing and in Japan, where it was a Wild West, anything-goes mentality, not to mention cage vs. ring and rules that don't allow soccer kicks and head stomps, two of his trademark finishing moves. As a champion for six years and with a big-money contract, he will start out high in the mix. But after Mirko Cro Cop and Rua failed to dominate, the problems that they faced figure to be even tougher for Silva.

So the question becomes, what to do from here?

First off, you look at the championship picture. Jackson is expected to be ready in March. Griffin is also banged up, with a bum shoulder and a lot of cuts. It's not the perfect direction and many will be critical of it because of the resentment of the idea the company gives Griffin preferential treatment as a homemade star. But for business, Jackson vs. Griffin is the way to go. On paper, it's an exciting fight. Jackson is the favorite but Griffin operates better as the underdog. The public will buy this fight more than any other the company can offer today. Every fan poll of the match they want leads you to this conclusion, and Griffin's not being expected to win in early 2008 becomes a selling point in its favor. And with UFC, you can't try and build it up over time because everyone can and will lose before you get to your destination if you hold matches off.

Jardine vs. Alexander is a natural rematch. It's the man who cost Jardine the title shot vs. a fighter coming off the Liddell win in a rematch. Another win by Alexander will prove he's for real. Another win by Jardine and he'll have earned a title shot. Right now, the UFC is looking at a different direction with Alexander, so he's going to have to win one match before this is under consideration. Keep your fingers crossed on this one.

Liddell vs. Silva. Everyone wants the match. Both are coming off two straight losses. The only holdup is whether Liddell's ribs, battered by Jardine's kicks, will recover in time for Dec. 29, when UFC has booked Silva to debut. Stylistically, Liddell has always seemed to have the advantage in this match-up. He's got a better chin. He's the bigger man. He can counter Silva's wild style. But at this level, there is no result you can count on, particularly when both men have major question marks. And if Liddell doesn't win, at least he's lost to a guy who holds two wins over Jackson and can immediately be put into title contention.

The winner of Ortiz-Evans vs. Rua. Rua is out for a few months and the winner of Ortiz-Evans won't be ready until the spring. If Ortiz beats Evans, a Rua win will be seen to the public like a big deal because Ortiz is one of the biggest names. If Evans beats Ortiz, it'll be a real baptism-under-fire if the old Rua comes back. In this series, two wins by Ortiz, unlikely as that might be, puts a money player into legitimate title contention, and that means big business. Two wins by Evans and he'll at least be seen as a top-tier star. And if Rua wins, he'll have rehabbed his image pretty well.

This leaves Henderson vs. Machida. Henderson's relentless style and aggressiveness may be the counter to Machida's usual boring matches. Plus, if Machida can get past him, people have no choice but to care about him.

The beauty of these scenarios is that in every case, no matter who wins, you've got somewhere to go. Jackson-Griffin is the biggest money match available today, so you should make sure and do it right away. And when all of these matches are over, you'll wind up with four very legitimate contenders, no matter who wins. Barring injuries at the wrong time, the mess created over the past week that killed the biggest money match may have set them up for a series of strong business matches that could go well into 2009.

[hofclemens]

another great breakdown by Meltzer.. I honestly dont know who will get the next title shot but hopefully when rampage is ready to go it will become more clearer.

[LWPD]

hofclemens said:

another great breakdown by Meltzer.. I honestly dont know who will get the next title shot but hopefully when rampage is ready to go it will become more clearer.

I could easily see QJ/Forrest headlining in the not too distant future. Alexander/Jardine would work as a no brainer semi-main (with a title shot going to the winner). Unfortunately I don't see any money coming out of Machida...and since this is a business first and a sport second...look for him to get the Fitch treatment...tough contendership match after match with no main event follow through.

LWPD (it's amazing how once proven top line like Tito, Liddell, Vanderlai and Rua now all have big question marks attached to them...but any one of those guys could hit a main event given a good showing or two)

[DUCE]

What are they going to do with Tito now that he is not going to be facing Rashad?

[LWPD]

duce said:

What are they going to do with Tito now that he is not going to be facing Rashad?

Dana White is using the same high pressure negotiating tactics on Tito Ortiz that he (successfully) pulled with Brandon Vera. He's refusing to allow Ortiz to fulfill the last fight on his contract 'before' he re-signs to a deal which is below the market value he can get elsewhere. For the good of the fighters as a whole I'm hoping Ortiz's next UFC battle is in a court room.

Good luck selling Bisping/Evans on top. That may be good for a UFN main event on Spike...but it's not something many of the casual interest buyers are going to pay to watch on PPV.